The Party’s Over

“In just a few days, shares of Internet travel company Expedia lost 12 percent of their value.”
That, according to an article in the Washington Post a couple days ago. What am I saying? A blip at an Internet company signals the end of the financial world?

“In just a few days, shares of Internet travel company Expedia lost 12 percent of their value.”
That, according to an article in the Washington Post a couple days ago. What am I saying? A blip at an Internet company signals the end of the financial world?
Maybe not. Other things worry me. The article, Easy Money, Lifeblood Of Economy, Is Drying Up, continues;

era of cheap money appears to be ending. Easy credit has been the
economy’s lifeblood in recent years. It gave people who previously
couldn’t afford homes a crack at the American dream. It fueled
multibillion-dollar takeovers of some of corporate America’s biggest
names. It buoyed the stock market and propped up the prices of many
other assets.”

I don’t mean to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but easy credit did
what easy credit always does; cuckolded the unsophisticated in favor of
the rich. You don’t see any ruined capitalists jumping out of windows,
at least not yet. What you did see over the past few years was a lot of
baiting, and now it’s time for the switch.

now, the investors who a few months ago were willing to lend money to
Wall Street at low interest rates, on loose terms, are balking as they
worry about having to pay the price for lax lending standards.

The trouble started in one of the shakiest sectors of finance, home mortgages for people with bad credit, but it is spreading.”

The trouble actually started with the anything goes
lending practices of banks and savings and loans, which are supposed to
get oversight from the Federal Reserve. But there was just too much
money to be made and the Fed couldn’t bring itself to do the right
thing; not while hedge funds (which no one understood) were inventing a
derivative-a-day (which promised no one would get hurt, but no one
understood them either). Thank Alan Greenspan, who left while the
leaving was easy.

“When people get scared, they tighten up all over,” said
A. Gary Shilling, president of the investment firm that bears his name.
He said he expects housing prices to fall significantly further. “This kills consumer spending,” he said of the credit crunch. “We
think we’ll be in a recession as a result by the end of the year. And
that will spread globally because U.S. consumers still are the buyers
of first and last resort for the excess goods and services produced
around the world.”

Well that’s certainly true. Tightening up all over
for the rich is a matter of investment, but for the poor it’s more
sphincter related. Big players sell short, but the gullible lose their
homes. Guys whose names begin with a single letter are always in the
know. It’s what the rich do before they’ve been rich enough long enough
to have Roman numerals after their names. A. Gary not only
expects housing prices to fall significantly further, he expects to
profit from it. No offense, Mr. Shilling. May I call you A?
Actually, the market is doing what free markets always do, maximize.
This time it was a variation on the Florida real estate scams of the

  1. You find a bunch of buyers who can’t possibly afford to buy.
  2. You invent a new investment ‘vehicle’ and call it a sub-prime mortgage. The reason it’s called a vehicle
    is because it’s designed to drive off with your money. Sub-prime is
    banker-speak for a loan no right thinking manager would make.
  3. Find a way for everyone in on the scam to make money. Salesmen,
    loan officers, loan packagers, derivative inventors, hedge funds and
    (at least a portion of) investors in hedge funds.
  4. Let the good times roll.

There is of course only one source of cash in this scam and that is the
loan itself. So it gets the economic equivalent of a Thai massage and
is sliced and diced and parceled out so that no one on the front end of
the deal gets hurt. They are currently all out of it and counting their percentages. The underlying (expressive word for it) mortgage is not meant
to be paid off, it’s meant to be foreclosed. Winner, winner, winner,
winner, winner . . . loser. When the music stops, there aren’t always
enough chairs.

“Some market watchers say the
credit market is simply in a midsummer pause, and investors will return
to scoop up the billions of dollars in loans and bonds yet to be sold.

really going to trigger the rally is when people start to refocus on
the strong fundamentals in the underlying economy as well as the
companies that issue the high-yield bonds,” said J. Eric Misenheimer, a
fund manager at J. & W. Seligman. “Default rates are still very
low. Corporate earnings are robust and their balance sheets are some of
the strongest they have seen since the mid-’90s.”

Trouble is, those ‘high yield bonds’ are mortgage-backed securities and the mortgages that secure them are generally not worth a fart in a whirlwind. The mid-90s you may recall, were followed by the late
90s, when the bubble burst and the poor bastards who got caught
up in that were sheared like sheep. But J. Eric is yet another guy with
a letter for a first name, so who knows? Don’t listen to me, my first
name is Jim, but Wikipedia describes the bust thusly;

combination of rapidly increasing stock prices, individual speculation
in stocks, and widely available venture capital created an exuberant
environment in which many of these businesses dismissed standard
business models, focusing on increasing market share at the expense of
the bottom line. The bursting of the dot-com bubble marked the
beginning of a relatively mild yet rather lengthy early 2000s recession
in the developed world.”

This time it may not be so mild. The overriding difference is that,
before the Bush administration got their hands on the American dollar,
it was still worth something internationally. Most Americans still
think it is. Their buck still buys the same groceries in what we have
been encouraged to call the homeland.
Out there in that space on the planet called ‘the rest of the
world,’ the buck didn’t stop on George Bush’s desk on its way to the
basement of currencies. It didn’t even pause. Hold your breath, I have
bad news.
The buck has dropped by half.
Essentially, that means anyone who loaned us a buck in 2000 is going
to get 50 cents back when repaid, plus interest. Nice, huh? It has to
do with (among other things) George, Donald, Paul and Dick giving $1.5
trillion or so to their friends and another trillion or more to fight a
war—each of which they put on America’s credit card. There are more
reasons than his girlfriend that Paul Wolfowitz was bounced from the
World Bank.
So, the investors of the world, who stepped in and loaned us money to
get over our hiccup, may not be as anxious a second time. We
continue to spend money we haven’t bothered to raise by taxes and we do
it by the hundreds of billions, like a profligate uncle.
Uncle Sam, a solid guy in the old days has recently become
recklessly wasteful, unrestrained by convention or morality. That’s
what profligate means. Washington has him hooked on coke. Would you
lend this guy money so he can continue to party through the night?
Thought not.
Media comment;

1 thought on “The Party’s Over

  1. Container Companies……….they
    finally start making a profit after January 01, 2008.
    China will demand being paid in (coins)penny's and nickels after that date because of the big fall in the US (paper) dollar.
    Having decrease down to an all time low of $0.14 cents has put all the overseas Countries playing defense. The penny and nickel have increase all most double in price because of their metal content.
    Hence……the return of the containers that have been stacking up 10 stories high on the East and West Coast will be used in the transfer of the currency.
    It's gonna be a big surge of profits for the Chinese government to swallow but with the 11% growth a little more can't hurt that much.
    With the new law in America…the American people can't melt the coins down for the content but China can….so! they melt the coins and exchange for euro's, dinar's, ruble's, peso's, colon's, yen's are even franc's but not one paper US dollar cause they only worth $0.14 "red" cents.
    1 penny is worth $0.014 cents
    1 nickel is worth $0.057 cents
    Plus China gets a bonus in the fact of killing two birds in one "BUSH"……keep some of the copper and nickel and cut back on imports!
    that little 4ft lady has got a head full of cents…oooops!
    sense and gonna make the US look like they have none….!!!
    oh well….guess thats what all the nincompoops in D. C. get for dealing with greedy a!!holes in Corporate America and the Wall Street private bank they call Federal Reserve.

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